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Tuesday, December 20, 2005

There is (almost) nothing wrong with making money, but ...

Google offers very interesting services and has great potential of generating more revenue and making much bigger profit. Google News has not been monetized yet, though it is probably the most popular or second most popular news site on the internet (Yahoo News and Google News are probably #1 and #2). Google Images has not been monetized yet; Google Images does not run ads like Google Search and Froogle. Google earth is a very interesting product, and it has not been monetized yet. Google has a lot of potential. That said, stock is traded at $279.99 today (August 18th) and the company's market cap is $77.77 billion, while its revenue is $4.48 billion. Market cap is bigger than revenue times 17. Market evaluates Google too high in my opinion, and I wouldn't buy Google.

Source - investmentInTech.com
The stock is traded at $429.74 today and the company's market cap is $127.01 billion, while its revenue is $5.25 billion. Market cap is bigger than revenue times 24, and the stock price went up $150.00, roughly 50% just for the last 4 months. The price was too high 4 months ago, but it has gone up much higher. Why is the stock traded at such a high price? Many analysts and brokers say that the stock is basically priced with the presumption that Google, the company will be worth $127.01 billion several years from now. However, how would we react if we hear the following pitch. "I have a website and its revenue is $10,000.00. The website's profit is roughly $3,000.00, but the website will keep growing its revenue and profit dramatically for the next several years, so I price the website at $240,000.00. It's a good value." We'd think that this sounds crazy. Pricing is just ridiculous and the promise of the website's growing dramatically for the next several years is nothing short of scam or fraud. However, the pricing is basically the same as that of Google stock's pricing. That's how high the stock is priced. Executives and core members (venture capitalists and major investment banks) have already cached in, so they already made tons of money; they made money because of the funny Google story that so many people believe in today and the story has brought the stock price to $429.74.

There is (almost) nothing wrong with making money in America, which is a capitalism society. However, Google executives and core members (venture capitalists and major investment banks) made so much money while they created the illusion that the company is worth $127.01 billion. Freedom of speech is a constitutional right, but does it guarantee the rights to create an illusionary story that will never ever happen and make profit from it while the story telling essentially allows story tellers to take money from others? There is something wrong with this.

I picked Google, but the fact of the matter is that so many stocks are priced like this today, i.e., they are priced for expected values of companies several years from now. The fact of the matter is that most companies will not be as valuable as what the market values them today. If you understand that, there is a way to money, but if not, you are destined to lose money; it is quite difficult to believe that the market that functions like this serves our society. There is something wrong with this.

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